More Uncertainty

More uncertainty and more volatility. The data released yesterday were below market expectations: the revised preliminary GDP data in the United States recorded a cut from +2.5% to +2.4% (accused public spending cuts because the so-called "tax kidnapping"), and on the other hand, initial jobless requests increased more than expected. Positive tone for a market that sees bad data as reduced odds of QE withdrawal. The session in the Asia-Pacific region has been marked by a wide battery of data in Japan, to include: maintaining the unemployment rate and the industrial production in a significant rise (actual 1.7%, previous +0 , 6%, expected +0.9%). The stock market closed with a mixed tone: the Japanese Nikkei added a +1.37% and the Chinese CSI 300 downwards by -1.06%. The session begins in the old continent with the release of industrial production data last month in Germany, which is growing up +1.8% this year, but recording a fall of 0.4% on last month. The european markets have opened with falls.

In Europe, remain vigilant to the publication of preliminary data for May CPI in the Eurozone, which is expected to rebound slightly to +1.4% from +1.2% the previous month. We will also know the Eurozone unemployment data, which are expected to be upward slightly from 12.1% to 12.2% (the market will be attentive to these data to determine today's movement). In the United States we will know this afternoon the purchasing managers index for Chicago, which can show the direction in which data will be moved in the United States next week. And also the consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan, a leading indicator of consumption (expected to remain unchanged). Tomorrow we will know the Chinese PMI data, which is expected to be upward from 50.6 to 50.1 (there are some rumors about the data to drop below 50).

For all this reasons, increase caution for positions at the end of week and month, as we have another surge in volatility on Monday with the release of PMI and ISM data.