Friday, May 24, 2013

High Volatility

After the sharp drops recorded at the beginning of the session by the U.S. indices, the macroeconomic data, which were better than expected (weekly jobless claims fell further than expected and new home sales rose above expectations ), were interpreted as positive for yesterday market. The major indexes ended the session with moderate cuts. The statements yesterday by ECB President, Mario Draghi, told us that the risk of rupture of the Euro has dissipated, but that the ECB can not solve the crisis alone.

The session in the Asia-Pacific region has been marked by the statements of the president of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda, who stated that sufficient incentives are scheduled (some kind of extension or extraordinary measures are expected). In this context, the Japanese Nikkei, having left during the session up to -3%, closed with a rise of 0.89%. For its part, the Chinese index CSI 300 added a 0.56%.

The session begins on Europe without much change. This morning some data has been released in Germany: the GFK consumer climate, which is above than expected at 6.5, the revised German GDP data for the first quarter of the year remains unchanged, and the rate of business climate, the German IFO, which is above that expected by the market consensus and moves from 104.4 the previous month to 105.7.

We will not know further relevant data in this side of the Atlantic during today's session. In the United States, remain vigilant to the publication of calls for durable goods, after the downward revision of previous data, which is expected to be placed in 1.5%. This is a very interesting indicator of business confidence, which perform more machinery orders when discounting an increase in sales (and thus in consumption) in a medium-term future. There could be changes in the market during the first half of the session, as we are in a fairly high level in most of the indices and there is an increased volatility, so they could be entering a correction, or just making a break in the path.

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