13th, Daily Report

The session today is expected to be slightly downwards due to some rumors about the possible departure of QE in the U.S. that generate doubts in the market. On the one hand, the good behavior of the stocks after the Japanese, American and European monetary policies but, on the other side of the ledger, the doubts about the continuation of QE could affect the behavior of the market for today's session. Beyond that, the Japanese market shows that while these monetary policies are active, the behavior of its index will continue with great upside. Another plus is that in the G7's meeting this weekend there haven't been news against expansionary policies of central banks.

In the U.S. market, the good data are always accompanied by some rumors about the termination of QE, partially slowing down. For this week we should expect an improvement in macro data, but this aspect may be accompanied by doubts about the continuation of QE. The presentation of business results also concludes for the 1st quarter and it seems that half of them have been pretty good. The best of last week were the SP and NASDAQ , which rebounded 1.2% while the Dow rose just 1%. Yet so far, this year the three indices are above the 13% annual return.

Last week in Europe, the shares ended upward proving that the new European monetary policy will continue to encourage buyers. We also have to join the good German macro data and the great improvement of confidence about the peripheral debt. All these are factors that influence the market to be more buyers than sellers and it looks like that it will not change as long as the monetary policy continue. The best index was the MIB with a rebound of 2.1% (6.2% annually) and the worst was the IBEX, which ended up driven by business results.

In Asia, both monetary policies and macro data generate confidence, and its level has continued to rise this morning in the NIKKEI (1.2%) with above 41% of annual return. This behavior is linked to good news in China despite that the industrial production was a little lower than expected. These issues continue to generate confidence in Europe, as well as the low bond yields of Japan, which make capital flows arrive to Europe to continue to fall the risk premium of the peripherals countries.

For this week I expect a bull market, but with some doubts about the rumors of a termination of the QE, which could completely halt these increases. For the medium and long term, I remain confident in a good upward trend of the markets.



INDICES:


S&P 500

Interesting the triangle that is developing in the H4 support area in 1619. Attention must be paid to the fact that it is located in an area of ​​uncertainty because both the down trend or the bullish continuation (in the vicinity of 1628), have the same odds.

Dax 30

The maximums of last week seem to be changing this Monday morning but, however, this may be no more than a mere collection of benefits. At the bottom, monitor the 8165 for the short term. The oscillators do not differ with regard to the long term.

Ibex 35

Return to the average of 50 sessions? It seems that the index is losing strenght after last week's rally and the correction experienced last Friday. We must be very careful when taking positions, since in the short term I see it in 8300, but I insist about remaining bullish for the medium term. RSI and stochastic in neutral territory.