Be Careful with Bernanke

Last weekend I wrote that a new sentence in the statement of the Federal Open Market Committee could announce changes. With Bernanke's observations, such changes may be on the way. Moreover, the ECB may be moving too - just in the opposite direction.

I will not call Bernanke a "hawk". But it is already said. (A "hawk" is someone who tightens rates to beat inflation and doesn't care about unemployment).

In view of the low rate of current interest, I am paying particular attention to examples of "extend the scope" and other forms of excessive risk that could affect the price of assets and their relationships with the fundamentals.

You can not ignore nit. I don't believe that Bernanke's views changed from the overnight, but a mere mention of the disadvantages of this policy could be seen as an early sign of reversal. While the FED may not be in a hurry to openly comment the future of QE, for investors operating EUR/USD both sides of the equation are equally important, especially since Draghi opened the door to the discount rate during the last conference.

The short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar is up and the Euro down. Both trends are based on macroeconomic data, and some changes in nominal fields will not be important. However, since monetary policy is the key to the exchange rates, the direction for the most important exchange in the world seems to be clear.