In the United States, the behavior is raised from a macro point of view very interesting, as the ISM manufacturing data, far worse than expected, boosted the stock market. This behavior (they go up when data are bad, and down when they are good) even contrary to normal, makes clear that the intervention does not help the markets in the medium and long term. In yesterday's session key U.S. indices rebounded with a rise of 0.9% of DOW, followed by SP and NASDAQ, which rose by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively.
The last session in Europe was slightly bearish at the opening but with a rebound that lowered the falls. The IBEX was the best index with a drop of 0.4% while the worst were the MIB and FTSE, which fell 0.9%. The rebound was thanks to PMI data, which had been better than expected. Moreover, in Spain, the Troika indicated an improvement in banking sector and that this is progressing well in his recovery. Finally, with the evil U.S. ISM data and downward revision in Germany's economic growth forecast, the market had a slight decline. The good thing about the session is that even with a worsening of the equity premium is still below the 300 bp (currently located in the area of 293pb) with bonds at 4.4%. As an important note, yesterday the Financial Times commented that it is very likely the ECB will not use its "bazzoka" in bond purchases, so the political intervention would be reduced.
In Asia, the Nikkei starts again the upward trend for two reasons. The words of Abe for a possible weakening Yen and a technical rebound in the 38.2% Fibonacci. The rise was 1.7%, which places it about 30% return so far this year.
Therefore, for today's session I expect an upward trend in the opening, supported on yesterday's increases in the U.S. and Japan. For the medium and long term we continue to expect a rise in the stock market.
INDICES:
S&P 500
The American index should reach its projection given by smashing the bearish triangle. Furthermore, this hypothesis is even stronger if you look at the hourly chart, and we see how the SP became stronger at the time of the break. With the indicators giving bearish bias, we continue with 1590 points target.
Dax 30
Again, upward opening on the German index. However, we must be careful about the double top I mentioned yesterday, as it leaves a bearish projection to the area of 8000 points. With indicators giving slight bearish bias, we will be attentive to the closing today, because this double top can be re-activated.
Ibex 35
Despite the bullish opening today, the Spanish index faces his umpteenth day in laterality with mild bearish bias. From the technical point of view, with the average of 30 sessions in a negative slope, we see that all indicators show also a clear laterality in the price. We must be careful because if it goes below the 8171 points, I seriously appreciate the possibility of going to lower supports.
