3rd, Daily Report

The week is beginning with fear of ending the aids by the Fed and the bad Chinese PMI data given by HSBC (although the official data has been better). These two factors raise doubts about the market that can cause a start to the week with falls. Also the slightly bearish behavior last week (though without excessive findings of shelter assets) raises questions about the market. We will be pending European PMI data that may indicate an improvement of the market in the short term.

In the United States, as we have been discussing, there are widespread doubts that caused a decline in the equity markets last week, as Friday's data were not very positive (although there is a relationship between slightly worse data and the continuation of QE). In fact, we had setbacks in the 3 major exchanges. The NASDAQ was the most stable with a decline of only 0.3% while the DOW and SP fell 1.2% and 1.1%. For this week, if everything keeps on the path, corrections may continue to retrace the markets.

Last week was marked in Europe by falls on the main markets of Central Europe. The best was the MIB again with a rise of 1.9%, followed by the IBEX, which last week rebounded by 0.7%. But the debt did not improved, with the Spanish bond near the area of ​​4.5%. For this week, the situation looks set to continue on this same path, as doubts about Central Banks drag the stock markets.


In Asia, the NIKKEI had an increase of 0.6%, but at the start of the week, it is clear that the index has fallen 17% from the last highs, indicating how the central bank interventions may end. This morning, it  fell 3.7%, dragged by bad Chinese PMI data.

For the start of the session, we should expect a decline in major markets, dragged by negative Chinese data and doubts about the Fed. For the medium and long term I expect a bounce upward, even if the Fed ends its injections in summer, as this indicates that the economy is already sustained of positive realities.



INDICES:



S&P 500

Corrections take over the index. As I mentioned last week, we are awaiting a triangle that projects us on the 1590 area. With volatility at medium-high levels, we can not lose sight of the session today because if it closes below the average of 30 sessions, all indicate that the index will go directly to the level expected.

Dax 30

Important point for the German index. After the significant declines with which it begins the week, we can say that the index has a double top with the area projected target of 8000 points. Interesting trading opportunity, as long as we put stop-losses in the maximums.

Ibex 35

Time to clear bearish bias for the Spanish index. After significant declines in the Asian markets, pessimism returns to European markets. As I noted last week, we continue to monitor the key level of 8193. We are closely following technical indicators, which give us a downtrend behaviour.